The Iraq Equation

Any viable polity must have security and an economy. Those are always the main issues in any country, and in countries with democratic elections, those two issues dominate discussion. So it is true with Iraq.
Their economy is dominated by oil, yet there is no deal on sharing oil revenue throughout the country. Over a third of the oil is on the black market, and the New York Times is reporting this evening that there is a $79 Billion surplus, some of which is sitting in a bank in New York. So we are no where close to an oil deal
As for security, there is improvement as of this writing. A number of factors including General Petraeus' successful tactics, more troops, the balkanization of Iraq, and the implosion of al Queda in Iraq have led to a more secure environment. There is little to suggest why it could not flare up very quickly.
But we all know that we need a new political order. That is the end game. As the previous post noted, we just learned that there will probably be no elections this year. No surprise.
It's simple really, just an equation:

Security + an Oil deal = a Political order

Security is tenuous, and an oil deal is non-existent. So we are not close to a political deal, and a successful venture in Iraq.